Title
Universal Cybernetic Risk Framework: Closed-Loop Dynamic Stabilization of Systemic Contagion in Interconnected Financial Networks
Authors
Abstract
Modern financial markets operate as hyper-connected, non-linear dynamical networks where micro-level autonomous de-risking and algorithmic liquidation cascades generate catastrophic macro-prudential instabilities. Prevailing systemic risk frameworks—such as Value-at-Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall (ES), and static DebtRank algorithms—function as open-loop, passive observational diagnostics that exhibit severe phase-lag errors during non-equilibrium liquidation spirals. This paper introduces the Universal Cybernetic Risk Framework (UCRF), transforming systemic risk mitigation from an observational metric into an active, closed-loop control architecture tailored for Central Counterparty Clearinghouses (CCPs) and central bank emergency liquidity facilities. We formulate a fully coupled 3N-dimensional state-space dynamic model capturing the non-linear interplay among balance-sheet equity, unencumbered funding liquidity, and endogenous fire-sale price impacts. By treating bilateral default cascades as sector-bounded non-linearities within a Lur’e system formulation, we establish rigorous network stabilization criteria using Lur’e-Postnikov Lyapunov functions and Linear Matrix Inequalities (LMIs). Furthermore, we prove formal Input-to-State Stability (ISS), analytically deriving the compact invariant attractor bounds that guarantee bounded systemic drawdowns under worst-case exogenous shocks. Crucially, UCRF incorporates actuator saturation and finite interventional budget constraints, resolving the unrealistic assumption of unconstrained liquidity bailouts. Multi-node stress-testing under a dual-time-scale simulation framework demonstrates that UCRF dynamically arrests contagion propagation and curtails systemic drawdowns substantially more effectively than conventional macroprudential overlays and equal-budget uncoordinated interventions, establishing an operational, mathematically grounded paradigm for safeguarding interconnected financial systems.
Keywords
Systemic Risk; Closed-Loop Control Systems; Financial Networks; Lur’e Systems; Linear Matrix Inequalities (LMI); Input-to-State Stability (ISS); Liquidity Contagion; Fire Sales
Classification-JEL
C61, C62, D85, G17, G28
Pages
39-61
How to Cite
Chan, L. C., Pan, S. H., & Wong, W.-K. (2026). Universal Cybernetic Risk Framework: Closed-Loop Dynamic Stabilization of Systemic Contagion in Interconnected Financial Networks. International Journal of Wealth Management, 1, 39-61.
